England are nearly there but a World Cup place for the other home nations hangs in the balance before the final group qualifying matches.
Northern Ireland are guaranteed a top-two finish, while Wales and Scotland have the chance to finish second in their group, which may well seal a place in the play-offs for Russia 2018.
But coming second and staying in contention are not necessarily the same thing. More on that later.
Meanwhile, the Netherlands and Iceland face a battle to go through, while Argentina are in trouble and Syria are in a play-off to keep their unlikely World Cup dream alive.
Here, we analyse the scenarios to establish who needs what from the final two rounds of qualifiers. Bear with us - it's complicated, but worth it.
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Who has already qualified?
The tournament will consist of 32 teams, with hosts Russia joined by 31 qualifiers from around the globe. The holders no longer qualify automatically, although Germany are on track to progress.
Eight sides are already guaranteed to be there: Russia, Brazil, Iran, Japan, Mexico, Belgium, Saudi Arabia and South Korea.
In Europe, the country that tops each of the nine groups reaches the finals, while the eight best second-placed sides go into play-offs.
What about the home nations?
Northern Ireland
Group C - Thursday: Germany (h) 19:45, Sunday: Norway (a) 19:45 (all times BST)
With just one defeat and only two goals conceded in eight matches, Northern Ireland - second in Group C - have more points than some group leaders.
Nine clear of third-placed Azerbaijan, they are guaranteed a top-two place as they look to reach their first World Cup since 1986.
Automatic qualification seems unlikely though - they need to beat Germany and Norway, and hope the Germans lose their final match against Azerbaijan. The reigning champions need just a draw in Belfast to top the group.
